Fears about the economic fallout from the new coronavirus weighed on Asian markets yesterday as the death toll in China from the epidemic rose and infections topped 70,500.
After Wall Street’s muddled performance on Friday and US markets closed yesterday for a holiday, traders turned their attention to grim economic news in the region.
Japan’s economy suffered its worst quarterly contraction in more than five years, while Singapore cut its growth forecast for this year as the virus batters the city-state’s tourism and trade.
That comes after Europe’s largest economy Germany reported on Friday zero growth in the last quarter of 2019 and warnings from the International Monetary Fund that the virus could damage global economic activity this year.
While investors are comforted by a slowdown in new infections outside hardest-hit Hubei province in recent days, they might be less sanguine if China’s economy takes a worse-than-expected hit, said Stephen Innes of AxiCorp.
“If it comes out bad enough for confidence to plummet, investors could quickly find themselves up the creek...without a paddle,” Innes said in a commentary. “Financial markets are not known for their rational thinking lately and given the 500mn or so mainlanders affected by the (COVID-19) quarantine...it’s also not hard to come up with more downside risks than upside ones right now.”
A spokesman for China’s national health authority said the slowdown was a sign the outbreak was being controlled. However, World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned it is “impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take”. Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.7% after the economy shrank 1.6% in the three months to December from the previous quarter, even before the novel coronavirus outbreak in China hit Japan, official data showed.
“Concern over the virus is only intensifying and the mood of self-restraint is going to spread more broadly.
I’m becoming downbeat on Japan’s economy,” Takashi Shiono, an economist at Credit Suisse Group, told Bloomberg News.
Mainland China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 2.3% after the central bank announced measures aimed at cushioning the economy against the health crisis.
Hong Kong was up 0.6% at the close. Elsewhere, Sydney fell 0.7%, Taipei shed 0.4% and Seoul was 0.1% lower.
China has been praised by the WHO for its transparent handling of the outbreak. There is still scepticism among the global public, with suggestions that Beijing may be hiding the true extent of the virus the way it did during the 2002-2003 Sars epidemic.
But investors have been betting that central bank action — particularly in China — will counter the economic impact of the virus and have positive knock-on effects for emerging markets.
Yesterday, the People’s Bank of China offered 200bn yuan ($29bn) of one-year medium-term loans at a 3.15% interest rate, 10 basis points lower than previously.
It also added 100bn yuan to money markets through reverse repurchase agreements. Wanlong Securities said in a commentary that the central bank’s steps amounted to an “interest rate cut in disguise”. “The market got a boost from these supportive measures,” it said.
China is the world’s biggest importer and consumer of oil, and crude prices have been particularly sensitive to the epidemic. Global oil demand will suffer its first quarterly drop in a decade as the virus lashes China’s economy and its impact ripples throughout the world, the International Energy Agency warned last week.
The main contracts have reacted mildly to the news. Brent Crude slipped 0.1% and West Texas Intermediate was flat.
In Shanghai, the Composite index closed up 2.3% to 2,983.62 points; Hong Kong — Hang Seng ended up 0.6% to 27,975.57 points and Tokyo — Nikkei 225 closed down 0.7% to 23,523.24 points yesterday.
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